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  • Rs = suRrender if allowed, otherwise Stand These are common misunderstandings that arise in everyday reasoning about probabilities, many of which have been studied in great detail. Many people lose money while gambling due to their erroneous belief in this fallacy. Although the gambler's fallacy can apply to any form of gambling, it is easiest to illustrate by considering coin-tossing; its rebuttal can be summarised with the phrase "the coin doesn't have a memory". Bingo In some LV Strip casinos you may still be able to find the older version of the multi-deck shoe game, where dealer stands on soft 17; those are usually high minimum ($50 or more) tables. This version is much more advantageous to the player, but requires a slightly modified basic strategy table. Basic strategy for other decks. Mathematically, the probability is equal to one that gains will eventually equal losses and a gambler will return to his starting point; however, the expected number of times he has to play is infinite, and so is the expected amount of capital he will need! A similar argument shows that the popular doubling strategy (start with $1, if you lose, bet $2, then $4 etc., until you win) does not work; see St. Petersburg paradox. Situations like these are investigated in the mathematical theory of random walks. This and similar strategies either trade many small wins for a few huge losses (as in this case) or vice versa. With an infinite amount of working capital, one would come out ahead using this strategy; as it stands, one is better off betting a constant amount if only because it makes it easier to estimate how much one stands to lose in an hour or day of play. You call this one and it's all over, baby. - Scotty Nguyen, during the 1998 World Series of Poker. Down to him and one other player, he said this to his opponent who called, and it was all over. When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. Certain rules changes are employed to create new variant games. These changes, while attracting the novice player, actually increase the house edge in these games. Double Exposure Blackjack is a variant in which the dealer's cards are both face-up. This game increases house edge by paying even-money on blackjacks and players losing ties. Double Attack Blackjack has very liberal blackjack rules and the option of increasing one's wager after seeing the dealer's up card. This game is dealt from a Spanish shoe, and blackjacks only pay even money. The stakes are made afresh, and the game proceeds. If the banker has been the winner, he deals again. If otherwise, the cards are passed to the player next in order, who thereupon becomes banker in his turn. By the time I'd played the required number of hands, my initial 200 credits had increased to 315, which gave me a total profit of ?215. Not bad for about an hour's work (not that I'd call it work). Big Wheel / Big Six Jacks or Better The dealer places before him the amount he is disposed to risk, and the players "make their stakes." Any punter, beginning with the player on the immediate right of the dealer, is entitled to say "Banco", meaning to "go bank," to play against the whole of the banker's stake. If no one does so, each player places his stake before him. If the total so staked by the seated players is not equal to the amount for the time being in the bank, other persons standing round may stake in addition. If it is more than equal to the amount in the bank, the punters nearest in order to the banker have the preference up to such amount, the banker having the right to decline any stake in excess of that limit.
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